Sila Wealth Advisory

Curb My Enthusiasm

 


Last week my wife and I took an overnight trip to Columbus Ohio to meet with some old college friends for dinner. And of greater importance, to my wife, shopping at Easton Town Center. My wife went shopping and returned several hours later with a very sharp silk jumpsuit which she planned to wear at dinner that evening.

The dinner plans were made by my friend Cyndi and she chose the Top Steak House in Bexley, a suburb of Columbus Ohio.  She made sure we sat outside under the covered part of the patio.  Cyndi also checked the weather to make sure we could eat on the outside and she assured us there was no rain in the forecast.

Dinner went without a hitch; the food and service were great. As was the weather until it suddenly took a turn for the worse. Out of nowhere I heard thunder, large rain drops and hail hitting the roof of the patio covering. It rained as if the heaven’s opened up and I was expecting to see Noah’s Ark floating by. The water started to flood the patio and we all scattered to the inside of the restaurant.

My wife and I ended up at the hostess station by the front door, but we did not want to go out to the car and ruin her new silk jumpsuit. Meanwhile I looked back at the hostess as she was furiously pounding her fingers on her I-phone and looked very frustrated I politely inquired what was wrong.  and she responded “ My weather App sucks it did not predict this rainstorm and I’m looking for a better one” In my best Larry David voice I said “ Maybe that’s because the weather is like the stock market and almost impossible to predict” She was not amused and continued downloading a new weather app.

Last week my wife and I took an overnight trip to Columbus Ohio to meet with some old college friends for dinner. And of greater importance, to my wife, shopping at Easton Town Center. My wife went shopping and returned several hours later with a very sharp silk jumpsuit which she planned to wear at dinner that evening.

The dinner plans were made by my friend Cyndi and she chose the Top Steak House in Bexley, a suburb of Columbus Ohio.  She made sure we sat outside under the covered part of the patio.  Cyndi also checked the weather to make sure we could eat on the outside and she assured us there was no rain in the forecast.

Dinner went without a hitch; the food and service were great. As was the weather until it suddenly took a turn for the worse. Out of nowhere I heard thunder, large rain drops and hail hitting the roof of the patio covering. It rained as if the heaven’s opened up and I was expecting to see Noah’s Ark floating by. The water started to flood the patio and we all scattered to the inside of the restaurant.

My wife and I ended up at the hostess station by the front door, but we did not want to go out to the car and ruin her new silk jumpsuit. Meanwhile I looked back at the hostess as she was furiously pounding her fingers on her I-phone and looked very frustrated I politely inquired what was wrong.  and she responded “ My weather App sucks it did not predict this rainstorm and I’m looking for a better one” In my best Larry David voice I said “ Maybe that’s because the weather is like the stock market and almost impossible to predict” She was not amused and continued downloading a new weather app.

I continued the discussion with this young lady, but she was obviously not interested and was rolling her eyes. I decided to go deeper into my inner Larry David. “My point is” I said “both the weather and stock market predictions are random, and both use multiple models to try to predict the future and the future, especially the short-term future, is unpredictable. How else could the stock market be back up since the March low?  Who predicted that would happen during this COVID crises? Who in fact predicted this pandemic let alone the stock market’s response to it?  And who predicted this torrential rainstorm? No one I tell you no one!”  Now the hostess is backed up against the wall, she is uncomfortable and is trying to avoid conversing with me.  

By now my wife had picked up that I was annoying this young lady and pulls me away and tells me “let’s take our shoes off, run through the rain and get to our car.”   As we drove back to the hotel she laughed and said, “OK smarty pants, tell me why the market rebounded, it’s your job after all” “Honestly honey” I replied “ I really don’t know and why it rebounded so quickly and it  does not make a whole lot of sense to me. I thought the market would stay down until we had a clear-cut solution to the COVIDS pandemic.”  Then my wife said “Judging on how empty the stores are it does not seem the economy has recovered like the markets have” “Good point” I said “ The markets and the economy are two separate entities and  If I had to bet on it I would say we are in for another dip in the market. But I hope I am wrong.”  

 

After my wife digested my analysis, she said “You just could not help yourself bothering that nice young lady, could you?”  “Well” I replied, “she needed to realize no weather app is infallible”. My wife rolled her eyes shook her head and was silent for the rest of the ride back to the hotel.   

 

Disclosure. This blog is for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not an offering of any financial advice nor a recommendation to purchase any securities.  

 

 

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